Scott V. Nystrom, Ph.D.

Archive for 2010|Yearly archive page

September 20 Market Week in Preview

In Earnings on September 20, 2010 at 10:38 am

All eyes will be on housing as homebuilders post earnings and housing-related economic reports are released this week. Investors will also be looking for signs of quantitative easing in monetary policy.

Market Preview

Asian markets are mixed today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is flat. Japan’s Nikkei is closed for Monday and China’s Shanghai Shenzen dropped by 0.4 percent.

European shares are up this morning, with the German DAX rising 0.3 percent. Britain’s Footsie 100 is up by 1 percent in mid-day trading.

The S&P 500 index opened up 0.2 percent this morning.

Crude oil is slightly higher on Monday morning, trading just under $74 a barrel.

Spot gold jumped in Monday morning trading, hovering around $1,280 an ounce.

Economic Preview

On the economic front, the National Association of Home Builders released results from its monthly survey of members on Monday coming in at an index level of 13, flat from the August survey index reading of 13. Expectations were for an index level of 14 for September. The index is on a scale of zero to 100 with 50 meaning demand is average.

Housing starts for August will be released on Tuesday and is expected to come in at a 550,000 annualized rate, up from 546,000 for July.

Monetary policy will draw attention on Tuesday afternoon, as the Federal Reserve meets, issues a policy statement, and releases the minutes from its last meeting. The key interest rate target is expected to remain unchanged. Investors will scrutinize the statement for signs of further monetary policy easing.

On Thursday, existing home sales for August will be released with a consensus number of 4.05 million annualized home sales, a faster rate than the 3.83 million reported in July.

On Friday, durable goods order in August will be released. Economists are expecting a decline in orders of 1 percent from July to August.

New home sales for August will also be released on Friday. The consensus number is 290,000 annual new homes sold, a slight improvement over the July number of 276,000.

Earnings Preview

On the earnings front, home builder Lennar (LEN) posted 16 cents per share in quarterly earnings this morning. Analysts were expecting 5 cents. Shares were up almost 6 percent on the good news.

On Tuesday before the open, ConAgra (CAG) will release earnings. The consensus number is 39 cents per share.

Adobe Systems (ADBE) will report on Tuesday at the closing bell, with analysts expecting 49 cents per share in profits.

General Mills (GIS) is scheduled to report on Wednesday at the open, with the street looking for earnings per share of 63 cents.

Nike (NKE) will post earnings on Thursday, with the street looking for $1.00 earnings per share.

And on Friday, KB Home (KBH) will report earnings. Expectations are for a minus 15 cents per share.

Other companies expected to report earnings growth this week include Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Carmax (KMX), Carnival (CCL), Darden (DRI), Red Hat (RHT), and Zales (ZLC).

Economic and Earnings Preview: Week of September 13

In Earnings on September 13, 2010 at 8:56 am

Bank stocks rise in Europe and Asia on the new Basel III agreement. Investors will be watching economic reports for clues on where stocks are headed this week.

Market Preview

Asian markets are higher today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 1.9 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.9 percent and China’s Shanghai Shenzen rose by 1 percent.

European shares are doing well this morning, with the German DAX rising 1 percent. Britain’s Footsie 100 was up by 1.1 percent in mid-day trading.

U.S. S&P 500 index futures were up 0.9 percent in pre-market action.

Crude oil is higher on Monday morning, trading just above $77 a barrel.

Spot gold was flat in Tuesday morning trading, hovering around $1,242 an ounce.

Economic Preview

Economic reports will likely dominate investor attention this week given so few companies will be reporting earnings this week.

retail sales for August will be released on Tuesday and are expected to have increased by 0.2 percent, down from a 0.4 percent increase in July.

On Wednesday, industrial production will be released and is expected to have increased by 0.4 percent after a 1 percent increase in July. Capacity utilization will also be reported along with industrial production. Overall capacity utilization is expected to rise to 75 percent, roughly flat from July’s reading of 74.8 percent.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims will be released with expectations for 455,000 new unemployment claims for the week of September 11th.

Producer price index data will also come out on Thursday. Analysts are expecting August producer prices to have risen 0.3 percent.

Basel III Agreement

The Bank of International Settlements announced Basel III, with new capital requirements for international banking. The BIS will instruct banks to hold tier 1 capital equal to 7 percent of risk-bearing assets.  Critics are concerned that the more stringent capital requirements come too late and have too long a lead-in time.

Bank stocks in Europe and Asia were up the Basel III news and the Financial Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) was up 1.4 percent in premarket trading.

Earnings Preview

On the earnings front, fewer than 50 companies will be reporting this week.

Best Buy (BBY) will post earnings on Tuesday before the market opens. The company is expected to post 45 cents earnings per share.

The Kroger Company (KR) will also report on Tuesday before the market opens with analysts expecting 36 cents profit per share.

On Thursday before the open, FedEx (FDX) will release earnings. The consensus number is $1.24 per share.

Oracle (ORCL) will report on Thursday at the closing bell, with analysts expecting 36 cents per share in profits.

And Research in Motion (RIMM) is scheduled to report on Thursday at the close, with the street looking for earnings per share of $1.35.

Equity Futures Point to Lower Open

In Earnings on September 7, 2010 at 7:44 am

Futures point to a lower opening on Wall Street after a long Labor Day weekend. President Obama proposes tax cuts and increased transportation spending to boost the economy.

Market Preview

Asian markets are mixed today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged up 0.2 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.8 percent and China’s Shanghai Shenzen rose by 0.3 percent.

European shares are down this morning, with the German DAX falling 0.7 percent. Britain’s Footsie 100 was lower by 0.8 percent in mid-day trading.

U.S. S&P 500 index futures were down by 0.5 percent in pre-market action.

Crude oil is lower on Tuesday morning, trading just above $73 a barrel.

Spot gold was flat in Tuesday morning trading, hovering around $1,247 an ounce.

Economic Data

On the economic front, consumer credit outstanding for July will be released on Wednesday. Credit contracted in both May and June. Economists are expecting further credit contraction of a minus $3.5 billion.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims will be released with expectations for 470,000 new unemployment claims for the week of September 4th.

International trade figures will also come out on Thursday. The trade gap spiked to nearly $50 billion in June. Analysts are expecting the July trade deficit to come in at $46.8 billion.

President Proposes Tax Cut and New Spending

President Obama is expected to propose a 100 percent investment tax credit for business for 2010 and 2011 estimated to increase the budget deficit by $200 billion. He will also propose a $50 billion boost in spending on transportation. The President will roll out his proposals to stimulate the economy in a Cleveland, Ohio speech on Wednesday.

Earnings Forecasts Scaled Back

Despite a successful second quarter earnings season, earnings projections have been scaled back over the past three months. In April, forecasters were expecting profits to grow by 20 percent in 2011. More recently, they have dialed back next year’s earnings estimates to a 15 percent growth rate. Investors are concerned that earnings could be lowered further in the next few months if the economy continues to weaken.

Earnings Preview

It will be a slow week on the earnings front.

On Wednesday after the market closes, Navistar International (NAV) is expected to post $1.36 earnings per share.

Pep Boys (PBY) will also report on Wednesday after the close with analysts expecting 19 cents in profits per share.

And on Friday before the open, athletic apparel maker Lululemon Athletica (LULU) will release earnings. The consensus number is 24 cents per share.

Market and Earnings Preview for the Week of August 30, 2010

In Earnings on August 30, 2010 at 10:29 am

U.S. stocks open marginally lower on Monday as federal government data shows personal income is up 0.4 percent and personal spending rising 0.2 percent in July. Second quarter earnings season is winding down. Meanwhile, Genzyme rejects takeover bid.

Market Preview

Asian markets are higher today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged up 0.7 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.8 percent and China’s Shanghai Shenzen jumped higher by 2.0 percent.

European shares were mixed this morning, with the German DAX falling 0.5 percent. Britain’s Footsie 100 was higher by 0.9 percent in mid-day trading.

U.S. S&P 500 index was marginally lower at 1,062 mid-morning, .

Crude oil is down slightly on Monday morning, trading around $74.50 a barrel.

Spot gold was flat in Monday morning trading, hovering around $1,237 an ounce.

Economic Data

A busy week on the economic news front could drive market action this week.

The Commerce Department says consumer spending rose 0.4 percent in July, the fastest rate in four months. Personal incomes were up 0.2 percent in July, lower than expectations of 0.3 percent. Personal spending was up 0.2 percent.

The Case Schiller home price index for July will be released on Tuesday and is expected to show housing prices were unchanged in June.

Also on Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence index is scheduled to be released. Forecasters expect the index to come in at 51.3 in August, up slightly from 50.4 for July.

The ISM manufacturing index will be released on Wednesday. Forecasters expect a 53.3 index level in August, down from 55.5 in July. Any number above 50 indicated manufacturing activity is expanding.

On Friday, the employment report for July will be released. Total payrolls are expected to fall by 120,000 workers following on a drop of 131,000 in July.

Company News

Genzyme (GENZ) rejected the Sanofi-Adventis buyout offer of $18.5 billion or $69 per share, opening the door for a hostile takeover bid. The bid was 38 percent higher than Genzyme’s July 1st price of roughly $50 a share. Genzyme shares closed at $67.62 a share on Friday.

Earnings

On the earnings front, Dollar General (DG) will post second quarter profits on Tuesday before the market opens, with a consensus estimate of 38 cents per share.

Seadrill Limited (SDRL) will also report results on Tuesday before the market opens. Analysts are expecting 66 cents per share in earnings.

Mining supplier Joy Global (JOYG) reports before the market opens on Wednesday, with forecasters expecting $1.02 profit per share.

Also on Wednesday, Heinz (HNZ) will post profits before the market opens. Analysts are expecting earnings per share of 73 cents.

And on Friday morning, Campbell Soup (CPB) posts profits, with analysts expecting 30 cents per share.

Earnings Preview for the Week of July 19-23, 2010

In Earnings on July 19, 2010 at 8:05 am

U.S. stock futures signal positive open as second quarter earnings season kicks into high gear. The financial regulation bill will be signed by the President.

Market Preview

In overseas equity markets this morning, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index moved lower by 0.8 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled lower 2.9 percent and China’s Shanghai Shenzen jumped up by 2.1 percent.

The German DAX is edging higher by 0.5 percent. Britain’s Footsie 100 is up 0.5 percent.

U.S. S&P 500 index futures were trading up by 0.4 percent in pre-market action.

Crude oil is flat on Monday morning, trading just over $76 a barrel.

Spot gold was trading down 0.7 percent early on Monday morning, at around $1,185 an ounce.

President to Sign Financial Regulation Bill

President Obama is scheduled to sign the financial regulation bill on Wednesday, setting restrictions on Wall Street including tighter inspection by federal regulators and consumer protection laws.

Economic Release Preview

On the economic front, housing starts come out on Tuesday and are expected to edge back from the 593,000 reported for May to a 580,000 annual rate in June.

Building permits will also be released and are expected to fall further to 563,000 for June after falling sharply to an annual rate of 593,000 in May.

Existing home sales for June will come out on Thursday. Observers are expecting an annual rate of 5.26 million sales in June, down sharply from the 5.66 million sales rate reported for May.

On Friday, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators index is scheduled to be reported with analysts expecting a 0.2 percent loss.

Earnings Preview

Earnings season will be in full swing this week with over 500 companies reporting second quarter earnings.

IBM (IBM) will post profits after the market closes on Monday, with analysts expecting $2.58 per share.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) will post second quarter profits on Tuesday before the market opens, with a consensus estimate of $1.24 per share.

Also on Tuesday, Peabody Energy (BTU) will report before the market opens. The consensus number is 66 cents a share.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will also report on Tuesday before the market opens. Analysts are expecting 73 cents per share in earnings.

Goldman Sachs (GS) posts profits on Tuesday as well with analysts expecting $4.72 a share.

Morgan Stanley (MS) will report profits on Wednesday before the market opens with a consensus estimate of 74 cents per share.

On Thursday, Microsoft (MSFT) is scheduled to post profits after the market closes, with analysts expecting 46 cents per share for the second quarter.

Ford Motor (F) will report earnings on Friday before the market opens with expectations of 37 cents per share. And Verizon (VZ) is expected to post 57 cents per share in profits on Friday.

July 2010 Economic Release Calendar

In Economy on July 12, 2010 at 8:36 am
Date Event
July 1 Initial Unemployment Claims-8:30
Construction Expenditures, May-10:00
ISM’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, June-10:00
Weekly Fed Data-4:30
July 2 Employment Situation, June-8:30
Factory Orders, May-10:00
July 5 Independence Day (observed)—U.S. Financial Markets Closed
July 6 13- & 26-Week Treasury Bill Auction
July 8 Initial Unemployment Claims-8:30
Consumer Installment Credit, May-3:00
Weekly Fed Data-4:30
July 9 Wholesale Trade, May
July 12 13- & 26-Week Treasury Bill Auction
July 13 Merchandise Trade Balance, May-8:30
Treasury Budget Report, June-2:00
July 14 Advance Retail Sales, June-8:30
Mfg. & Trade: Inventories & Sales, May-10:00
July 15 Initial Unemployment Claims-8:30
Producer Price Index, June-8:30
Capacity Utilization, June-9:15
Industrial Production, June-9:15
Weekly Fed Data-4:30
July 16 Consumer Price Index, June-8:30
Real Earnings, June
July 19 13- & 26-Week Treasury Bill Auction
July 20 Housing Starts & Building Permits, June-8:30
July 22 Initial Unemployment Claims-8:30
Leading Indicators, June-10:00
Weekly Fed Data-4:30
July 26 13- & 26-Week Treasury Bill Auction
New Home Sales, June-10:00
July 28 Durable Goods Orders, June-8:30
July 29 Initial Unemployment Claims-8:30
Weekly Fed Data-4:30
July 30 Employment Cost Index, 2Q10
Gross Domestic Product, 2Q10 (Advance)
Agricultural Prices

Earnings Preview: The Week Ahead for July 12-16, 2010

In Earnings on July 12, 2010 at 7:46 am

Global equity markets are mixed on Monday morning. Second quarter earnings season kicks off the week as key economic data are released.

Market Preview

In overseas equity markets this morning, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index moved higher by 0.4 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower 0.4 percent and China’s Shanghai Shenzen jumped up by 1.1 percent.

The German DAX is edging higher by 0.3 percent. Britain’s Footsie 100 is up 0.8 percent.

U.S. S&P 500 index futures were trading slightly down by 0.2 percent in pre-market action.

Crude oil is flat on Monday morning, trading just over $76 a barrel.

Spot gold was trading flat early on Monday morning, at around $1,205 an ounce.

Economic Preview

On the economic front, the trade deficit will be reported on Tuesday. It is expected to come in at a negative $39 billion for May, compared to a minus $40.3 billion level in April.

All eyes will be on the retail sales number released on Wednesday. Retail sales came in at a disappointing 1.2 percent decline in May. Analysts are expecting smaller decline in retail sales for June, at minus 0.3 percent.

On Thursday, industrial production and capacity utilization data will be released. Production is expected to have fallen 0.2 percent in June. Capacity utilization is expected to have dropped to 74.0 percent in June from a 74.7 percent level in May.

The consumer price index will be released on Friday with economists expecting it will show a minus 0.1 percent for June.

Also on Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is expected to fall in June to 75.0 from 76.0 in May.

Earnings Preview

It will be a heavy week for earnings reports as Alcoa (AA) officially kicks off second quarter earnings season at the close of business on Monday. Analysts are expecting the aluminum maker to post 19 cents a share in profits for the second quarter.

Also reporting after the market closes on Monday will be rail operator CSX Corporation (CSX). The consensus number is 88 cents per share.

Intel (INTC) will post profits after the market closes on Tuesday with analysts expecting 43 cents per share.

Restaurant franchiser Yum! Brands (YUM) will also be reporting earnings on Tuesday. The consensus forecast is 54 cents per share.

Marriott International (MAR) will post second quarter profits on Wednesday after the market closes, with a consensus estimate of 28 cents per share.

On Thursday, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) will report before the market opens. The consensus number is 82 cents a share.

Also on Thursday, Google (GOOG) is scheduled to post profits after the market closes, with analysts expecting $6.59 per share for the second quarter.

Bank of America (BAC) will report earnings on Friday before the market opens with expectations of 22 cents per share. And Citigroup (C) is expected to post 6 cents per share in profits on Friday as well.

Investing 101 – Six Tips for Success

In Lessons on July 9, 2010 at 1:45 pm

Learn the basics and know thyself

There is much to understand to be a successful self directed investor these days. Investing in stocks may seem like a complicated process. However, people with sufficient interest, motivation, and guidance can make informed decisions about which stocks to buy or sell. This article can help you decide if you have the interest and motivation to be a self directed investor.

So how does a beginning investor get started without having to worry too much about making mistakes? The simple answer is learn. People spend tens of thousands of dollars and hundreds of hours going to college to study and prepare themselves for a career to support their families financially. Similarly, learning to be a successful self directed investor takes a lot of time and some savings.

1. Take Your Time

It is important to go slowly and be patient with yourself and your savings. Learn your lessons over time and you are less likely to make costly mistakes. And by all means, start small and don’t invest money you can’t afford to lose. Investors shouldn’t invest money they need to meet their monthly bills. Stocks go up and stocks go down and the road to riches is littered with stories of people who went bust and lost everything in the market. Thankfully the “went bust” anecdotes are the exception rather than the rule and lend a strong cautionary tale. This is why it is important to start small, diversify, and be patient as you develop and become a more astute investor.

As you become more comfortable with investing, you will feel more comfortable increasing your commitment of assets.

2. Learn How Markets Work

New investors need to understand how markets work. It doesn’t take a Ph.D. in economics or an MBA to get a fundamental understanding of markets. In the most basic form, markets are social processes where people voluntarily trade goods and services.

There are several types of markets available to self directed investors including stock markets (NYSE, Nasdaq), bond markets, futures markets, and currency markets. Stock markets facilitate the voluntary buying and selling of ownership in companies. Bond markets involve the buying and selling of debt obligations by companies and governments. Futures markets are used for the buying and selling of contracts regarding future delivery of goods, commodities, or financial paper. Foreign exchange markets are used for trading national currencies.

Learn how markets work. Pick a company and follow its share price action and news releases for a couple months. Read what analysts are saying about the company. The internet is a great place to get useful free information and articles. Price quotes, company news releases, analytical articles, and educational reports are all available for free at Self Directed Investor. There are additional sites with free content that can provide useful information on stocks like Yahoo Finance, Forbes, Seeking Alpha and others.

3. Understand Risk

There are several definitions of risk. The most common concept of risk for investors is the risk of losing capital. It is a simple concept and one that every investor can understand at a gut level. The second concept of risk used by professional investors refers to the volatility—either up or down—in the value of an asset. In statistical terms it is called “standard deviation.” In financial circles it is labeled “beta.” An investment returning between minus 10 percent and plus 50 percent over a period of time is considered more risky than one that returns between 2 percent and 10 percent over the same period. Time is also an important dimension. Over time, the effect of risk generally decreases for most equities as volatility is smoothed out along an upward trend line.

One of the least considered aspects of risk for new self directed investors is “risk tolerance.” Everyone has a different emotional risk tolerance. Some people are more comfortable taking positions in speculative companies like junior gold miners or biotechnology stocks. Others prefer more conservative “blue chip” companies with a long track record of slow and steady earnings/dividend growth. Emotional risk tolerance differs among individuals and there is no right or wrong risk tolerance level. But it is important to know where you are emotionally along the “risk tolerance” spectrum and to invest accordingly.

4. Understand Investing vs. Trading

Investing should not be confused with trading. Both involve the purchase of an asset in the hope it will grow in value, but that is where the similarities end. The biggest difference between investing and trading is in goal setting and time preference. Trading seeks to profit (goal) from the short-run (time preference) buying and selling of an asset. Positions are opened and closed within the same day (intraday) or over a few days months (swing trading or position trading).

Investing requires a long-run perspective (time preference) with an objective in mind like paying for an education, a wedding, or providing income for retirement (goals).

In practice, the lines between investing and trading are becoming blurred as self directed investors are increasingly using trading techniques in the wake of the market meltdown of 2008-2009. Buy and hold has lost its appeal. In many ways, investing is morphing into day-trading as investors more quickly book profits and cut losses.

5. Join an Investment or Trading Group

Join a community or online investment or trading discussion group. There is nothing more valuable than receiving critical feedback from others on your investing ideas. Every investor knows different things and you can use the expertise or knowledge of others to help you make decisions about your investments.  For example, some investors know a lot about specific companies. Other investors understand the economic cycle of investments and the sectors most likely to rise or fall in the near future. All of this information can help you be a better investor.

Discussion groups can also provide emotional support during periods of market uncertainty.

My favorite online investment discussion group is subscription-based ValueForum.com, with over one thousand members and several hundred active members. There is a fee to become a member of ValueForum. The fee is sufficient to keep out charlatans and stock pumpers, but reasonable given the number of experienced and talented  self directed investors who post their best ideas several times a day.  There is something for everyone at ValueForum with over 125 discussion topics, 1,170 members, a stock ratings system, shared portfolios, and other very useful online collaboration tools.  The site has a “7 days for $7″ promotion for those wanting a trial period without making a longer term commitment.

6. Beware of “Get Rich Quick” Schemes

A common mistake made by new self directed investors is acting on sales pitches by hypsters with the “secret system for making a million dollars overnight.” If it sounds too good to be true, it is too good to be true. Yet, new investors are regularly lured into false promises of easy money. Stay away from the pitches that guarantee quick wealth.

Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of successful stock newsletters and trading instructors who have perfected a trading system or are talented at picking stocks.  Some are willing to teach you their methods, but you should always take the time to learn what you are getting into before making any financial commitments.

Conclusion

These are just a few basic suggestions for new self directed investors. Remember, no single investment approach is a foolproof recipe for making money in the markets. And not every investment, trade, or strategy produces positive returns. But it is important to remember that learning the basics about markets and knowing your goals and risk tolerance are the first steps to becoming a successful self directed investor.

U.S. Dollar Gains, Fades on Initial Jobs Data, Then Firms

In Forex on June 24, 2010 at 8:34 am

Heightened risk aversion and fear of continued global economic weakness in the U.S. and a move toward austerity in Europe helped firm the U.S. dollar on Wednesday. Positive initial job claims released on Thursday morning provided a slight morning reversal.

Wednesday’s plunge in new-home sales and the Federal Reserve’s gloomy economic report had investors moving into dollars as a safe haven play as risk appetite dwindled yet again.

New Homes, Durable Goods Beat Expectations

New-home sales for May fell by nearly one-third from April to the lowest level ever recorded, an annual rate of 300,000 according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Sales fell 18.3 percent compared with a year ago.

Uncertainty about the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone is also driving aversion to risk assets. The lack of certainty is driven largely by a lack of consensus among euro zone countries on how to create a strong and sustainable economic recovery. If economic headwinds are in focus, the U.S. dollar generally outperforms other currencies.

The U.S. Department of Labor released initial jobless claims at 8:30AM (EST) this morning. The result surprised analysts, falling 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 457,000 level. This was the lowest level in six weeks and beat expectations of 465,000 initial claims.

On the manufacturing front this morning, the U.S. Commerce Department said orders for durable goods dropped in May, sinking 1.1 percent on weaker demand for airplanes, steel and communications equipment. This was viewed as mildly positive on expectations for a 1.4 percent decline.

Currency Reaction

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar’s performance against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 85.71  before the open of U.S. equity markets versus 85.96 ahead of the job claims and durable goods data. The index had risen as high as 86.00 yesterday.

The euro is trading at $1.2289 compared to $1.2268 ahead of the data, The euro rebounded marginally higher following the somewhat positive U.S. durable orders and initial claims data results.

The British pound extended the week’s gains, supported by a Tuesday announcement of the new government’s emergency budget to reduce spending and cut the U.K. budget deficit. The British pound rose as high as $1.5011 and is trading at 1.4993 before the open of U.S. equity markets.

The Australian dollar tripped below 0.867 this morning. The Aussie started higher, boosted by new Prime Minister Gillard who called for a truce between the government and the mining industry regarding a 40 percent tax on miners’ profits, beginning in 2012.

The Canadian dollar has come under pressure after surging higher on Wednesday. Heightened risk aversion and uncertainty from the Bank of Canada’s Lane and Carney combined with a very weak Canadian retail sales report. The high so far today is 1.0448 and is trading at 1.0426 just before the open of U.S. equity markets.

Week Ahead: China’s Yuan Statement Rallies Risk Assets

In Central Banking, China, Earnings, Economy, Financial Crisis, Forex on June 21, 2010 at 7:53 am

Global equity markets surge on news that China will let its currency float gradually over time. The dollar slips as investor appetite for risk rises.

Market Preview

The risk trade is back in favor after China’s announcement that it plans to gradually let the yuan float against the U.S. dollar. Global risk assets (stocks and commodities) jumped higher on Monday after the central bank news out of China.

In overseas equity markets this morning, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 3.1 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.4 percent and China’s Shanghai Shenzen surged 3.1 percent.

The German DAX is higher by 1.4 percent mid-day. Britain’s Footsie 100 is also up by 1 percent.

U.S. S&P 500 index futures were trading higher by 1.5 percent in Monday’s pre-market action.

Crude oil prices rose to the highest level in six weeks after China announced it will increase flexibility in its currency. Oil is up over 1.5 percent this morning and hovering around $78.50 a barrel.

Spot gold is trading higher by 0.4 percent, near its all-time high just above $1,262 an ounce.

The euro is trading at 1.239 after rebounding against the dollar earlier this morning. The single currency had traded as low as 1.237 today. This price action is all on the heels of the euro’s best weekly advance in nine months against the greenback last week.

China Loosens Currency Peg

On Saturday, China’s central bank announced plans to enhance the flexibility of its exchange rate. China ruled out a one-time revaluation and indicated any strengthening of the yuan would be gradual. The U.S. government has pressured China to let its currency move more freely against the dollar.

An appreciation of the yuan is expected to translate into lower inflation risk and greater purchasing power for Chinese consumers while increasing inflation risk and lowering purchasing power for U.S. consumers. Lower inflation in China would take the pressure off the People Bank of China (China’s central bank) to raise interest rates in an attempt to cool off the its high growth economy.

Mining stocks are expected to benefit from this move as it reduces the pressure for continued monetary and fiscal policy tightness in China.

Mining stocks surged in London this morning with Xstrata higher by 4.8 percent and BHP Billiton (BHP) jumping 4.3 percent.

Economic Preview

On the economy, existing home sales for May will come out on Tuesday with observers expecting an annualized rate of just over 6 million in sales forecast for the month, a five percent rise from the 5.77 million sales rate reported for April.

New home sales will be released on Wednesday with an annual rate of 400,000 forecast for May, a 20 percent decline from the 504,000 rate for the previous month.

Also on Wednesday, the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ends and releases a statement. The Fed will again likely leave short-term interest rates unchanged at nearly zero percent. Language in the statement is once again expected to say that rates will stay “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.” The FOMC will also likely maintain that expansion in the economy continues with few signs of inflationary pressure. is However, the statement could mention potential risks to the U.S. economy, particularly from a European sovereign debt and banking crisis.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims will be released with expectations for 465,000 new unemployment claims for the week of June 19th. Economists will be watching this week’s number carefully after the Labor Department reported higher than expected jobless claims last week.

Also on Thursday, all eyes will be on the durable goods orders announcement. Orders for durable goods are forecast to be weak, with economists forecasting a 0.5 percent decline for May after rising 2.9 percent in April.

Earnings Preview

On the earnings front, Adobe Systems (ADBE) will report on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting first quarter profits of 42 cents per share.

Oracle (ORCL) will post profits on Thursday, with Wall Street expecting 55 cents per share.

Also on Thursday, the Blackberry company, Research in Motion (RIMM) is expected to report $1.33 per share in earnings.

KB Homes (KBH) will post earnings on Friday with analysts expecting a loss of 30 cents per share.

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